{"id":8605,"date":"2012-05-16T20:34:00","date_gmt":"2012-05-16T18:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T12:28:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:28:21","slug":"the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade","status":"publish","type":"casmef_publication","link":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abstract: The understanding of the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) and the Equity Premium Puzzle (Mehra and Prescott 1985), is still widely discussed in the economic<br>and financial literature. The purpose of this paper is to show differences in the ERP between developed and emerging markets. Using data from both markets, we<br>first provide an ex-post simple time series analysis on the ERP. Compared to developed markets, and in line with existing literature, we find that emerging markets<br>compensate investors with higher returns. We observe that the time varying nature of the equity risk premium in emerging economies, relates mainly to economic<br>cycles, shocks and other macro phenomena (i.e. global financial market integration). Basic statistics also show that during the last decade the ERP shrunk, especially in advanced economies. To improve investigations on the higher emerging markets\u2019 equity premium, a standard global asset pricing model is adopted. On one hand, we mainly find that the one-factor model does not fully characterize emerging markets\u2019 equity premia. On the other hand, we discover that the inclusion of liquidity conditions and time-varying components provides reasonable explainations for the behaviour of equity premia in these \u201cyoung\u201d markets. Our final findings mainly suggests that global business cycle and financial integration process are crucial in determining the risk associated to emerging markets\u2019 investments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donadelli M, Prosperi L. CASMEF Working Paper Series. 2012;(1). <\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","publication_type":[559],"class_list":["post-8605","casmef_publication","type-casmef_publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"pub_unit":7855,"pub_file":8604},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets - Casmef<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets - Casmef\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donadelli M, Prosperi L. CASMEF Working Paper Series. 2012;(1).\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casmef\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-30T10:28:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets - Casmef\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-05-16T18:34:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-30T10:28:21+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Casmef\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Casmef\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/Logo-CASMEF.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/Logo-CASMEF.svg\",\"caption\":\"Casmef\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/casmef.luiss.it\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets - Casmef","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets - Casmef","og_description":"Donadelli M, Prosperi L. CASMEF Working Paper Series. 2012;(1).","og_url":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/","og_site_name":"Casmef","article_modified_time":"2026-07-30T10:28:21+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/","url":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/","name":"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets - Casmef","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-05-16T18:34:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-30T10:28:21+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/publications\/the-fiscal-impact-of-illicit-tobacco-trade\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Equity Risk Premium: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/","name":"Casmef","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/#organization","name":"Casmef","url":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Logo-CASMEF.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Logo-CASMEF.svg","caption":"Casmef"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/casmef_publication\/8605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/casmef_publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/casmef_publication"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/casmef_observatory\/7855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"publication_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casmef.luiss.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type?post=8605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}